Lucky's Leafs
New Jersey's outdoor
cannabis advantage.
Lucky's Leafs is acquiring a rare, municipally-approved parcel where New Jersey lets us grow cannabis under the sun — and sell into a market that has paid more than double the national wholesale price. One outdoor harvest is built to cover the cost of the land.
Entitled outdoor cannabis land in a sealed market — one harvest built to pay for it.
Buying ~17 entitled acres at 2100 Belvidere Rd, Harmony Twp NJ — one of the only towns in the state that permits outdoor cannabis cultivation — and planting a 3.5-acre outdoor season, then self-funding greenhouse and indoor phases from harvests.
7,000 lb × ($900 − $200 grow − $40 excise) = $4.62M net crop margin from a single 3.5-acre cycle. Underwritten at the market's structural floor — ~38% of NJ's last print of $2,391/lb.
- Site control — LOI countersigned by seller (Aug 10 2026)
- Legal parcel — subdivision plat recorded, Warren County Map #877
- Outdoor use right — Harmony Ordinance O:24-06
- Municipal precedent — certified Resolution 24-24 on this lot
- Water — Allentown dolomite aquifer, hydro study filed
- Demand — signed Casa Verde dispensary LOI
Grow where the sun is free and the market is starved.
New Jersey is one of the country's most supply-starved cannabis markets. Wholesale flower printed $2,391/lb as recently as September 2025 — more than double the U.S. index — because too few cultivators were operational.
Only a sliver of that supply is grown outdoors. Outdoor cultivation costs a fraction of indoor, but nearly every NJ operator is locked into expensive warehouses because their town won't permit sun-grown canopy. We found a town that will — and a parcel already carrying municipal cannabis approval. We grow at outdoor economics and sell into indoor-scarcity pricing. The spread is the business — and the scarcity is official: as of October 2025 the CRC counted just three fully-outdoor farms in the entire state. With 100-acre outdoor applications now surfacing, the race for entitled dirt has begun.
The window is now — and it's measurable. Through H1 2026, NJ wholesale fell at record pace (−14.2% in March alone) as new growers switched on. As the scarcity premium fades, cost leadership becomes the durable edge — and sunlight is the cheapest input in agriculture.
We underwrite the base at $900/lb blended — the market's own structural floor, ~38% of NJ's last print — and every scenario carries NJ's $40/lb excise. The crop's cash break-even is ~$290/lb at the conservative $250/lb grow cost (~$240 at base): the margin of safety is structural.
2100 Belvidere Road — 17 acres built for three ways to grow.
A 27-acre farm parcel, subdividing to deliver our ~17-acre cultivation footprint — the ~15-acre Lot 7.2 plus adjoining buildings — with road frontage and room to scale across all three cultivation methods.
The outdoor field is the cash engine. The greenhouse extends the season into premium shoulder-months; the existing structures convert to indoor for year-round top-shelf — each funded by the harvest before it, not by new capital.
The reason this can't simply be copied down the road.
Outdoor cannabis is effectively banned across most of New Jersey — towns have to opt in, and almost none have: as of late 2025 the CRC counted just three fully-outdoor farms statewide. Harmony Township is the rare exception, and this specific parcel already carries the approvals.
Outdoor cultivation is expressly permitted
Harmony Ordinance O:24-06 (May 2024) authorizes cultivation "on the exterior portions of a lot." That single clause is what makes sun-grown economics legal here.
Municipal cannabis support on this parcel
Township Resolution 24-24 already granted municipal support for a Class 1 Cultivator + Class 2 Manufacturer license at this parcel — the local approval that gates the state license. This site has cleared that bar once already.
3.5 outdoor acres ≈ a full Tier VI license
NJ's largest cultivator tier permits up to 150,000 sq ft of licensed canopy — one license comfortably covers our 3.5-acre outdoor field. With NJ's license-count cap lifted, greenhouse & indoor add as further licenses.
One of NJ's best aquifers, on-site
The state's own hydrogeology puts the parcel on the Allentown dolomite, where area wells yield 1,500+ gpm — ample for irrigation, pending a standard NJDEP agricultural water registration. Sun and groundwater replace indoor growing's two biggest costs.
Entitlements substantially in place
Minor subdivision is county-approved, the site sits in Flood Zone X, and utility service is confirmed by JCP&L — the slow, discretionary work is largely behind the asset.
Cultivation-pure, no retail entanglement
Harmony keeps dispensaries and distributors out — so we stay a focused cultivator selling into NJ's 300+ dispensaries, with no zoning conflict and less competition for the land.
One outdoor harvest. Built to pay for the land.
3.5 acres of licensed outdoor canopy, one grow cycle a year — in a sealed market where imports are federally barred and only three farms grow outdoors. We underwrite the base at $900/lb blended — the market's own structural floor, ~38% of NJ's last print. Move the assumptions yourself — every scenario carries the $40/lb state excise, and the crop's cash break-even (grow cost + excise) is just ~$240–290/lb.
In a market that cannot import, the floor is set by the marginal grower the state still needs. New Jersey's marginal supply is indoor, at roughly $500–700/lb cash cost; add the $40/lb excise and merchantable blended flower cannot structurally clear much below ~$850–950/lb — and the value tier where outdoor competes floors near ~$550–600. Gluts can push 20–30% below floor for a season before capacity exits. Read our ladder against that architecture: the base case prices the blended structural floor itself, the upside reaches only the external reviews' base-case view ($1,000–1,200), and conservative prices a glut beneath the value tier. Independent July-2026 underwriting reviews put the downside floor at $750–900/lb — bracketing our base and far above our conservative case. And the crop's cash break-even — grow cost plus excise — sits near $240–290/lb, roughly an eighth of the state's last print: the margin of safety is structural.
A proprietary cultivation program the model doesn't lean on.
Our outdoor program runs on a proprietary cultivation methodology engineered for New Jersey's climate and growing season — designed to put us ahead of industry-standard outdoor yields. In NJ's conditions we expect 1.5–2.0 oz per square foot across the 3.5-acre field (152,460 sq ft) — roughly 14,300–19,000 pounds per season at full program performance.
None of it is in our numbers.
Every financial scenario in this deck is underwritten at or below 1 oz/sq ft: the base case assumes the plain industry average (2,000 lb/acre → 7,000 lb), and even the upside stops at 1 oz/sq ft. The proprietary program is modeled at zero — deliberately.
If the program performs to target, the surplus lands on top of a model that already covers the land at industry-average yield — every pound above 9,527 is torque the deck never asked you to believe. Targets are company engineering estimates for the proprietary methodology, not results from completed New Jersey harvests; program specifics are available in diligence.
A billion-dollar market that can't grow enough of its own product.
Demand has outrun supply since adult-use launched in 2022. That imbalance is why NJ wholesale printed $2,391/lb in September 2025 while the nation now trades near $997 (June 2026).
Operational cultivators roughly doubled in late 2025 — from about 24 to 46 — and 2026 brought record price declines, with the NJ index hitting an all-time low by May. Hundreds more licenses will convert over the next 12–24 months. The advantage belongs to whoever can grow at the lowest cost when prices normalize. Outdoor sun-grown is the lowest-cost canopy there is — and in supply-short East-Coast markets it isn't discounted the way it is out West: in New York, where most licensed canopy is outdoor, sun-grown prints near indoor prices. New Jersey is also a sealed market: federal law bars interstate imports, so cheap Western outdoor can never undercut us here — every pound sold in NJ is grown in NJ, and today just three farms grow it under the sun.
Even as NJ prices compress toward the national average, an outdoor cost base near $200/lb preserves margin that indoor operators — at $650/lb and up to produce — simply cannot match.
The $900 base is a blend, not a bet on A-grade.
An outdoor harvest never sells as one product. At the reported ranges, a conservative mix — 40% A-grade at $1,800 · 25% B-buds at $1,000 · 35% biomass at $450 — blends to ≈$1,130/lb. Our base books $900/lb blended: it absorbs roughly 20% further compression across every grade plus the seasonal “Croptober” congestion dip (~8–10% as simultaneous outdoor harvests hit the market) before the model misses.
The mitigation is calendar, not hope: wholesale purchase agreements with dispensaries and manufacturers are negotiated before the crop hits the drying racks — anchored by the signed Casa Verde LOI and priced separately for flower and extract-input material.
Outdoor funds the greenhouse. The greenhouse funds indoor.
One raise turns on the outdoor engine. Every phase after that is paid for by the harvest before it — investors fund the land, not the whole build.
Acquire & license
Close the land, convert municipal support into the NJ Class 1 Cultivator license, develop the site — security, well, irrigation, field prep.
Plant & harvest 3.5 ac
Plant in spring, harvest in fall. One outdoor cycle returns ~$4.6M over crop cost and excise at base case — nearly twice the land price.
Add mixed-light canopy
Harvest proceeds fund 3.5 ac of greenhouse — premium quality, multiple cycles, shoulder-season pricing power.
Convert existing buildings
Existing structures become year-round indoor for top-shelf flower — the highest-margin tier, self-funded, no new raise.
Conservative all the way down
The five-year model holds outdoor at $900/lb blended, greenhouse at $900, and indoor at $1,400 — each at or below its structural floor and below NJ's 2025 prints — and charges every pound the $40/lb state excise plus Harmony's 2% local tax. It assumes compression continues to the floor and stays there, and the self-funded buildout is capitalized and depreciated rather than hand-waved.
Years 2+ assume additional cultivation licenses (NJ's license-count cap was lifted in 2023) and hold prices below current market. Illustrative, not a guarantee of results.
| Line item | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pounds sold | 7,000 | 13,000 | 20,000 | 26,000 | 30,000 |
| Revenue | 6,300 | 11,700 | 20,000 | 26,900 | 31,500 |
| Cash COGS | (1,400) | (3,500) | (7,150) | (10,150) | (12,150) |
| Gross profit | 4,900 | 8,200 | 12,850 | 16,750 | 19,350 |
| SG&A | (628) | (952) | (1,450) | (1,864) | (2,140) |
| Harmony 2% transfer tax | (126) | (234) | (400) | (538) | (630) |
| NJ SEEF excise ($40/lb) | (280) | (520) | (800) | (1,040) | (1,200) |
| EBITDA | 3,866 | 6,494 | 10,200 | 13,308 | 15,380 |
| Depreciation | (21) | (126) | (376) | (561) | (689) |
| EBIT | 3,845 | 6,368 | 9,824 | 12,747 | 14,691 |
| Income tax (26% eff.) | (1,000) | (1,656) | (2,554) | (3,314) | (3,820) |
| Net income | 2,845 | 4,712 | 7,270 | 9,433 | 10,871 |
| Cumulative net income | 2,845 | 7,558 | 14,827 | 24,260 | 35,132 |
| Self-funded expansion capex | (1,050) | (2,500) | (1,850) | (1,280) | — |
Ties cell-for-cell to two companions: the interactive proforma (tabbed statements with scenario presets and stress-test sliders — a page of this site) and the workbook “Lucky's Leafs Cultivation Proforma (Aug 2026).xlsx” for the data room — full assumptions, capex & depreciation, cash flow, a balance sheet that ties to $0 every year, scenarios, and the Year-1 monthly bridge. All three run the same verified engine.
Where a grower actually needs the money.
Farming is seasonal: you spend through the summer and get paid after the fall harvest. Here's the real Year-1 cash path — and the one financing detail we won't paper over.
The $3.1M buys the land and turns on the crop. But the harvest-and-trim peak in October lands before the first sales clear — a normal agricultural cash trough of about $0.5M.
We cover it the way every serious farm does: a small seasonal working-capital line of ~$500k (a fraction of the equity, secured by standing crop and the land), retired within weeks as product moves — to be arranged through cannabis-experienced private lenders; the facility is not yet committed, and the raise is sized so the line is a bridge, not a dependency. By year-end, crop-level cash is roughly +$4.8M.
The old plan buried its financing gaps. This one surfaces them. A pitch that survives due diligence beats a prettier one that doesn't.
$3.1M to own the land and land the first harvest.
Structure open to discussion — equity, secured note, or a blend. The land itself underwrites investor downside: a real, appreciating asset in a supply-constrained market.
Operators who have built licensed facilities — and engineers who build hard things.
Lucky's Leafs is named for Luciano, the founder's son — born on St. Patrick's Day and lost in 2020. The company carries his name into a mission of natural medicine and opportunity. That's the "why." Here's the "who."
John Franco
25+ years building and running customer-facing businesses in New Jersey — including a barbershop he grew into a profitable community fixture employing 15–20 people, many from underserved backgrounds. Leads vendor and dispensary relationships, personnel, and community standing.
Brandon Rumann
Aerospace engineer and project manager across NASA (ISS, VIPER lunar rover) and Blue Origin (Orbital Reef), and co-founder of a multi-million-dollar venture. Owns capital strategy, the financial model, and investor relations — and has personally invested $145k+.
Jamie Fillipuzzi
Built a Health Canada–licensed cannabis facility from the ground up and secured five cannabis licenses. Runs cultivation operations, quality systems, and compliance — the hands that have actually done this before.
Rodrigo Savonne
Hands-on NJ cannabis experience from TerrAscend, one of the state's largest operators — machinery, compliance under NJ regulation, and the dispensary relationships that move product.
Early commercial traction includes a signed letter of intent with the Casa Verde dispensary and verbal commitments from additional independent dispensaries — anchor demand for first-harvest flower.
What could go wrong — and why the downside is protected.
Every number in this deck traces to a source.
Market
NJ-CRC certified sales and dispensary counts · NJ Division of Taxation SEEF schedule · Cannabis Benchmarks spot indices & grow-type benchmarks · N.J.A.C. 17:30 cultivator tiers · NJBiz / Headset outdoor-scarcity reporting · the structural price-floor derivation.
Property & approvals
Harmony Ordinance O:24-06 · Resolution 24-24 · Warren County subdivision File 25-003 · WJH Engineering survey · M2 Associates hydrogeology · JCP&L will-serve letter.
Own the land. Harvest the advantage.
We'd welcome the chance to walk you through the model line by line — or the property in person. A rare, entitled, sun-grown foothold in one of the country's most supply-starved cannabis markets doesn't stay available for long.
Lucky's Leafs LLC · Harmony Township, Warren County, NJ · Confidential
Illustrative projections based on documented assumptions and cited market data; not an offer to sell securities, and not a guarantee of results. Figures subject to due diligence, appraisal, and final licensing.