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12  /  Data & Sources

Every number in this deck traces to a source.

Market data re-verified July 15, 2026. Each figure below ties to the deck, the interactive proforma, and the workbook “Lucky's Leafs Cultivation Proforma (Jul 2026).xlsx.”

Market — prices & demand

  • Cannabis Benchmarks® — U.S. Cannabis Spot Index $997/lb (June 26, 2026); July implied forward ~$1,060. NJ spot $2,391/lb (September 2025 print). 2025 grow-type indices: outdoor $418 · greenhouse $725 · indoor $1,378.
  • NJ wholesale compression through H1 2026 — record monthly declines: −8.2% (Feb), −14.2% (Mar — largest on record), −10.5% (May, to an all-time low), −4.4% (Jun); index −16.8% vs the YTD average (Cannabis Benchmarks weekly reports).
  • NJ Cannabis Regulatory Commission — certified 2025 sales: $1.164B total — $1.118B recreational (+11.8% YoY), $46.2M medicinal (−45%) — certified May 14, 2026. 300+ dispensaries open across 21 counties (May 2026); 2,521 of 3,212 applications approved.
  • Retail flower price compression — $8.86/g (Apr '25) → $6.80/g (Apr '26), −23.3% (CRC data).
  • NJBiz “Croptober” (Oct 2025), citing NJ-CRC — just three fully-outdoor cultivation facilities statewide: Brute's Roots (Hammonton), North Lake Supply (Augusta), Nova Farms (Swedesboro). Operational cultivators roughly doubled in late 2025 (~24 → 46). Headset: NJ pricing remains “an outlier… meaningfully higher than most U.S. markets.”
  • CRC production data (via NJBiz) — 2024: 24.52M oz from 6,051 harvests (+49% vs 2023's 16.41M oz); Jan–Oct 2025: 25.87M oz from 18,679 harvests (harvest count ~3×, volume ~flat — many more small operators). 60+ cultivator licenses active. Scale comparison: Ascend's entire NJ canopy = 42,000 sq ft; our single outdoor field (152,460 sq ft gross) ≈ 3.6× that.
  • Sealed market — federal law bars interstate cannabis transfer; every pound sold in NJ is grown in NJ. Outdoor entitlement race: Grasshopper Farms markets NJ sun-grown; Andover Township fielded a ~125-acre outdoor application (NJ1015).

Market — excise & structural floors

  • NJ Division of Taxation — Social Equity Excise Fee (SEEF): $2.50/oz = $40/lb, effective Jan 1, 2026 on cultivator sales (SF-100 monthly filing). The CRC voted Dec 2025 to hold the rate flat, rejecting a $30/oz staff recommendation. The rate resets annually; the statute scales toward $30/oz as retail prices fall — modeled in every scenario, and stress-testable to $480/lb in the interactive proforma.
  • SEEF invoicing practice — the fee is typically invoiced as a pass-through on top of wholesale price (Div. of Taxation SF-100; cultivator-to-cultivator and medical transfers exempt; wholesale SEEF sales not charged 6.625% retail sales tax per TB-104). The model deliberately books it as an absorbed cost — disclosed in the deck and workbook.
  • Structural-floor analysis (this deck, Jul 2026) — marginal-producer derivation: NJ's marginal supply is indoor at ~$500–700/lb cash cost + $40/lb excise ⇒ blended floor ~$850–950/lb; the value tier where outdoor competes floors near ~$550–600/lb; gluts can push 20–30% below floor for a season before capacity exits. Two independent July-2026 underwriting reviews place the downside floor at $750–900/lb. Derived estimates, not a printed index — no public NJ outdoor transaction series exists (grow-type detail is subscription data).

Property (Block 31, Lot 7 → Lot 7.2), Harmony Township, Warren County, NJ

  • WJH Engineering — Harmony Twp. sheet-set survey: original Lot 7 = 27.229 ac (1,186,098 sq ft), subdividing into Lot 7.2 = 15.08 ac (cannabis parcel with existing buildings + Belvidere Rd frontage) and Lot 7.1 = 12.15 ac. The deal footprint ≈ “17 ac” (Lot 7.2 plus building/access strip).
  • Warren County Planning Department — minor subdivision approved, File 25-003 (March 24, 2026).
  • Zoning & siting — LI-O/C zone; Flood Zone X; Highlands Planning Area (not Preservation); currently agricultural (farmland-assessment rollback tax on conversion is budgeted in acquisition costs).
  • JCP&L — will-serve letter confirming electric service (February 3, 2025).
  • M2 Associates — hydrogeologic evaluation & well-test plan (October 21, 2024): parcel over the Allentown dolomite, among NJ's best bedrock aquifers; area wells yield 1,500+ gpm. Multi-acre irrigation requires a standard NJDEP agricultural water-use registration.

Approvals & licensing

  • Harmony Township Ordinance O:24-06 (adopted May 7, 2024) — expressly permits outdoor cultivation (“on the exterior portions of a lot”) and manufacturing in LI-O/C; rare in NJ, where outdoor is allowed only where a town opts in. Harmony prohibits dispensaries, wholesalers, and distribution facilities, and levies a 2% local transfer tax on cultivator & manufacturer receipts.
  • Harmony Township Resolution 24-24 (June 4, 2024) — municipal support for a Class 1 Cultivator + Class 2 Manufacturer at Block 31, Lot 7 — the local approval that gates the state license.
  • N.J.A.C. 17:30-10.4 — cultivator canopy tiers; Tier VI = 100,001–150,000 sq ft mature canopy ≈ the 3.5-acre outdoor field (152,460 sq ft gross; planted canopy somewhat less after rows/setbacks). Statewide license-count cap expired February 22, 2023; vertical integration permitted — greenhouse/indoor phases add as further licenses.
  • Licensing mechanics — Class 1 application ~$20k (20% at submission / 80% at approval); conditional path ~4–5 weeks to board consideration; annual/conversion ~12–26 weeks. Seasonal reality: plant ~May, harvest ~Oct — first-harvest revenue lands the first fall after licensure.

Model anchors (all scenarios include the $40/lb SEEF)

  • Outdoor price scenarios (revised Aug 2026) — Conservative $450 / Base $900 / Upside $1,200 per lb, each anchored to the structural-floor derivation above: conservative = the U.S. outdoor index with zero NJ premium (a glut beneath the value tier); base = the blended structural floor (~$850–950); upside = the two independent July-2026 underwriting reviews' base-case view ($1,000–1,200). Context: NJ Sept '25 all-flower $2,391; NY sun-grown prints near indoor prices. Crop cash break-even (grow cost + excise) ≈ $240–290/lb.
  • Grade-mix pricing (industry-reported, spring 2026 — not a public index) — premium outdoor flower $1,800–2,200/lb · B-buds/fresh-frozen $1,000–1,400/lb · extraction biomass $300–600/lb. A conservative 40/25/35 mix blends to ≈$1,130/lb; the base books $900 blended. NJ grade-level transaction data is not publicly released; ranges are directional.
  • Outdoor grow cost — industry range $150–300/lb (median ~$214); modeled $175–250/lb across scenarios.
  • Yield anchors — 1,500 / 2,000 / 2,722 lb per acre (low / industry average / 1 oz-per-sq-ft upside); scenarios use 1,800 / 2,000 / 2,722.
  • Proprietary cultivation-program yield target (company representation, not an external source) — 1.5–2.0 oz/sq ft on the gross 152,460 sq ft field ⇒ ~14,300–19,000 lb/season. An engineering estimate for the proprietary methodology, not a completed-harvest result; no financial scenario in the deck or proforma relies on it — all scenarios remain underwritten at ≤ 1 oz/sq ft.
  • Taxes in the five-year model — 2% Harmony transfer tax; $40/lb SEEF; ~26% blended effective income tax (cultivators capitalize most production cost into COGS under 280E §471; NJ decoupled from 280E at the state level).
  • Capital plan (revised Aug 2026) — $3.1M raise: land at the $2,495,000 contract price + $210k site development + $140k first-season working capital + $95k licensing & legal + $90k acquisition costs (incl. farmland-assessment rollback) + $70k contingency (~11.6% of non-land uses).
  • Headline outputs (all incl. SEEF; v2 model) — one outdoor cycle (3.5 ac): base $4.62M (1.85× the land) / upside $9.38M (3.76×); sensitivity grid: 15 of 24 cells ≥ the land price. Year-1 cash trough −$469k (Oct) → ~$500k seasonal working-capital line; end-of-season crop cash +$4.76M. Five-year base: revenue $6.3M → $31.5M; Year-1 net income $2.85M; cumulative net ≈ $35.1M after depreciation on the self-funded buildout ($6.68M expansion capex, 10-yr straight-line); Year-5 ending cash ≈ $30.4M; balance sheet ties to $0 every year.

Key URLs & documents

  • NJ Div. of Taxation — SEEF: nj.gov/treasury/taxation/cannabis/recreational/seef.shtml
  • CRC 2025-in-review (Feb 6, 2026) & certified sales: nj.gov/cannabis/highpoints/20260206.shtml
  • Cannabis Benchmarks U.S. Spot Index (Jun 26, 2026): cannabisbenchmarks.com/reports/u-s-cannabis-spot-index-june-26-2026/
  • CRC held SEEF flat for 2026: capemaycountyherald.com (Dec 2025); Cannabis Business Times (Governor's proposed hike)
  • Cultivator tiers: N.J.A.C. 17:30-10.4 (regulations.justia.com); license cap lifted: mjbizdaily.com (Feb 2023)
  • NJ market analyses: dankreports.com/new-jersey-cannabis-sales-analysis; partyllama.co wholesale pricing guide 2025
  • NJBiz “Croptober” (Oct 2025) — three outdoor farms per CRC: njbiz.com/croptober-new-jersey-cannabis-harvest-season; Headset NJ: headset.io/markets/new-jersey
  • Grasshopper Farms NJ sun-grown: grasshopperfarms.com/newjersey; Andover outdoor application: nj1015.com
  • Project documents — Harmony Ordinance O:24-06; Resolution 24-24; Warren County File 25-003; WJH Engineering survey; M2 Associates hydrogeology report; JCP&L will-serve letter.

Market data verified July 15, 2026 · Confidential · Not an offer to sell securities